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JUSTIN TRUDEAU - PRIME MINISTER OF CANADA
By Bernard Bujold -
All indications are that Justin Trudeau will be Canada's next Prime Minister after October 21, 2019.
Indeed, legally, the outgoing Prime Minister remains so until he submits his resignation to the Governor General.
For example, suppose that out of 338 seats in Parliament, the Conservatives get 140 and the Liberals 130. Since the majority to be achieved is 170, it will require the support of the other parties to form a government.
As outgoing Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau can negotiate until January 2020, before resigning, and try to form a coalition with another party to gain the support of at least 40 MPs from the other parties in the House.
Because Andrew Scheer does not want a coalition and the other parties do not want to associate themselves with the Conservatives either, the door is wide open for Justin Trudeau, even if he mathematically lost the October 21 elections!
Justin has more than one trick in his bag and observers were surprised to learn of Barack Obama's support.
If Donald Trump had been criticized for accepting Vladimir Putin's indirect support in front of the Russian media, Barack Obama is now using Twitter to officially invite all Canadians to vote for Justin Trudeau...
It seems that the support would be legal if no money was paid to Obama in exchange for his support. Justin Trudeau did not want to say whether he was the one who asked Barack to support him, or whether he was the one who offered it...
The support is likely to be talked about in the media and it will have to be seen whether or not the action will give Justin Trudeau a victory. If it is a victory, Justin and Barack will surely celebrate the event during the former American president's visit to Montreal on November 14. If it is a defeat, then the two will probably cry together...
To conclude, let us mention a good news for election day: the temperature will be sunny and around 17 Celsius.
SEE STORY ON COALITION
SEE STORY ON SUPPORT BY BARACK OBAMA
ELECTIONS CANADA 2019 - STRATEGIC VOTE
By Bernard Bujold -
Less than a week from October 21, the strategic voting strategy is becoming increasingly important as it is evident that the Liberals and Conservatives are tied in polls at 31-32% (as of Tuesday, October 15, 2019).
The solution for many voters will be to vote not to elect a deputy, but to vote to prevent a party from winning a minority of seats and its leader to become Prime Minister. Justin Trudeau or Andrew Scheer, that's the question?
Personally, I will vote strategically but with the goal of increasing the country total of votes to my favorite leader. Although proportional voting has no official significance, it remains statistically that the overall result will be analyzed. If a party totals, say a million votes rather than a thousand, the leader of that party will be able to assess its significance.
Moreover, with respect to my personal strategic vote, I continue to believe that with more than 300 candidates running, it is mathematically impossible for any candidate from Maxime Bernier's party to be elected.
To be continued!
SEE PHOTO
DEBATE OF THE LEADERS 2019
By Bernard Bujold
The leaders' debate in French was well conducted but none of the leaders could establish themselves as the "champion" of the October 21 election.
Yves François Blanchet did not escape at the front of the race and if we compare to a horse race, we can say that the race will end with the photo finish...
My favorite horse, Maxime Bernier, did very well but unlike elsewhere in the world, especially in the United States, here in Canada there is no polarization between the right and the left. Canadians are dispersed and diverse when it comes to defining their political support. Because of that, Maxime Bernier did not manage to stand out from the race and was unable to attract a section of the Canadian population to his party.
If there is a polarization of voters in Canada, it is at the level of political party organizations.
In this sense in 2019, the Liberal organization against the Conservative will produce a winner in the election. In the end, it will be either Justin Trudeau or Andrew Scheer as the minority Prime Minister because many voters will vote for one or other of the two major parties depending on their geographic location.
The other leaders will become for the next four years "jester of the king" in the court which is the Canadian Parliament ...
And Maxime Bernier? Mathematically with more than 300 candidates in the running, he should win a few seats, according to the law of chance, and he will thus become a voice in the King's Court, like other fools! If Maxime were not to win any seat, then Albert's theory will be proven wrong ... (Albert Einstein)
To be continued !
SEE MAXIME BERNIER WEBSITE
